Lower Guidance May Be Theme For Earnings Season

Given continued/accelerating European economic weakness and widespread weakness among the most recently reported US data (manufacturing, services, consumer confidence, construction and executive confidence), the key takeaway from the upcoming earnings season may be companies’ forward guidance.

Last quarter’s earnings seem likely to be quite strong, but the prospect of Ex-US economic weakness spreading throughout the world (or at least the perceived possibility/probability of such in the eyes of corporate executives) could cause the third quarter earnings season to be more about the windshield (the future) than the rear-view mirror (the past).